Player breakdown
Xavier Hutchinson
Iowa St. · 2023 Draft Class
6-2203 lbs6th round, 205th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
12%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | HOU | 16 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 90 | 11.3 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 2024 | HOU | 16 | 3 | 26 | 12 | 117 | 9.8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 2025 | HOU | 17 | 6 | 57 | 35 | 428 | 12.2 | 3 | 25.2 |
| Career | 49 | 9 | 102 | 55 | 635 | 11.5 | 3 | 13.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 12 | 64 | 771 | 4 | 12 | 64.3 |
| 2021 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 13 | 83 | 987 | 5 | 11.9 | 75.9 |
| 2022 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 12 | 107 | 1,171 | 6 | 10.9 | 97.6 |
| Career | 37 | 254 | 2,929 | 15 | 11.5 | 79.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
6%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Efficiency consistency: 1.04 — highly consistent across seasons+0.191
BMI 26.1 — ideal frame for NFL WR (203 lbs)+0.185
Speed score 96.4 — strong weight-adjusted athleticism+0.140
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.174
Physical production synergy-0.453
Recruit dominator synergy-0.226