Player breakdown
Aaron Lockett
Kansas St. · 2002 Draft Class
5-7155 lbs7th round, 254th overallAge: ~44
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
28%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 13 | 36 | 584 | 2 | 16.2 | 44.9 |
| 2001 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 11 | 24 | 357 | 3 | 14.9 | 32.5 |
| Career | 24 | 60 | 941 | 5 | 15.7 | 39.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
27%
ML model output
Context Prob
37%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 20% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.143
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.712
Efficiency consistency: 1.03 — highly consistent across seasons+0.177
Top Negative Factors
-12.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.738
0.21 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.482
Accounted for 1.73 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.418