Player breakdown
Adrian Arrington
Michigan · 2008 Draft Class
6-3203 lbs7th round, 237th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~40
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
72%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | NOR | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 79 | 11.3 | 0 | 79 |
| 2011 | NOR | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Career | 5 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 110 | 12.2 | 0 | 22.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Michigan | Big Ten | 8 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | Michigan | Big Ten | 13 | 40 | 544 | 8 | 13.6 | 41.8 |
| 2007 | Michigan | Big Ten | 13 | 67 | 882 | 8 | 13.2 | 67.8 |
| Career | 34 | 109 | 1,438 | 16 | 13.2 | 42.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
33%
ML model output
Context Prob
89%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
7
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.244
1.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.254
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.94 — elite recruit at elite school+0.222
Top Negative Factors
-13.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.734
Physical production synergy-0.567
Improvement accelerating (+72.5) — getting better faster each year-0.451