Player breakdown
Ainias Smith
Texas A&M · 2024 Draft Class
5-9190 lbs5th round, 152nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
40%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | PHI | 7 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 | 5.9 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Texas A&M | SEC | 12 | 22 | 248 | 3 | 11.3 | 20.7 |
| 2020 | Texas A&M | SEC | 10 | 43 | 564 | 6 | 13.1 | 56.4 |
| 2021 | Texas A&M | SEC | 12 | 47 | 509 | 6 | 10.8 | 42.4 |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | SEC | 4 | 15 | 291 | 2 | 19.4 | 72.8 |
| 2023 | Texas A&M | SEC | 12 | 53 | 795 | 2 | 15 | 66.3 |
| Career | 50 | 180 | 2,407 | 19 | 13.4 | 48.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
21%
ML model output
Context Prob
64%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 14% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.249
Physical production synergy+0.262
BMI 28.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (190 lbs)+0.234
Top Negative Factors
-6.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.735
Accounted for 1.86 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.406
0.38 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.318