Player breakdown
A.J. Brown
Mississippi · 2019 Draft Class
6-0226 lbs2nd round, 51st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
EliteAll-Conference x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | TEN | 16 | 11 | 84 | 52 | 1,051 | 20.2 | 8 | 65.7 |
| 2020 | TEN | 14 | 12 | 106 | 70 | 1,075 | 15.4 | 11 | 76.8 |
| 2021 | TEN | 13 | 13 | 105 | 63 | 869 | 13.8 | 5 | 66.8 |
| 2022 | PHI | 17 | 16 | 145 | 88 | 1,496 | 17 | 11 | 88 |
| 2023 | PHI | 17 | 17 | 158 | 106 | 1,456 | 13.7 | 7 | 85.6 |
| 2024 | PHI | 13 | 13 | 97 | 67 | 1,079 | 16.1 | 7 | 83 |
| 2025 | PHI | 15 | 15 | 121 | 78 | 1,003 | 12.9 | 7 | 66.9 |
| Career | 105 | 97 | 816 | 524 | 8,029 | 15.3 | 56 | 76.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 29 | 412 | 2 | 14.2 | 34.3 |
| 2017 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 75 | 1,252 | 11 | 16.7 | 104.3 |
| 2018 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 85 | 1,320 | 6 | 15.5 | 110 |
| 2022 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Career | 44 | 192 | 2,991 | 19 | 15.6 | 68.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
94%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 19% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.264
Physical production synergy+0.286
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.98 — elite recruit at elite school+0.221
Top Negative Factors
Recruit dominator synergy-0.256
57.1 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.173
0.10 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.173