Player breakdown
Calvin Ridley
Alabama · 2018 Draft Class
6-0189 lbs1st round, 26th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~31
HighAll-Conference x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
63%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ATL | 16 | 5 | 92 | 64 | 821 | 12.8 | 10 | 51.3 |
| 2019 | ATL | 13 | 10 | 93 | 63 | 866 | 13.7 | 7 | 66.6 |
| 2020 | ATL | 15 | 15 | 143 | 90 | 1,374 | 15.3 | 9 | 91.6 |
| 2021 | ATL | 5 | 5 | 52 | 31 | 281 | 9.1 | 2 | 56.2 |
| 2023 | JAX | 17 | 17 | 136 | 76 | 1,016 | 13.4 | 8 | 59.8 |
| 2024 | TEN | 17 | 14 | 120 | 64 | 1,017 | 15.9 | 4 | 59.8 |
| 2025 | TEN | 7 | 6 | 36 | 17 | 303 | 17.8 | 0 | 43.3 |
| Career | 90 | 72 | 672 | 405 | 5,678 | 14.0 | 40 | 63.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Alabama | SEC | 15 | 89 | 1,045 | 7 | 11.7 | 69.7 |
| 2016 | Alabama | SEC | 15 | 72 | 769 | 7 | 10.7 | 51.3 |
| 2017 | Alabama | SEC | 14 | 63 | 967 | 5 | 15.3 | 69.1 |
| Career | 44 | 224 | 2,781 | 19 | 12.4 | 63.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
57%
ML model output
Context Prob
65%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 33% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.269
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.644
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.99 — elite recruit at elite school+0.212
Top Negative Factors
+8.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.706
Physical production synergy-0.441
Recruit dominator synergy-0.330