Player breakdown
A.J. Jenkins
Illinois · 2012 Draft Class
6-0190 lbs1st round, 30th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~36
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
54%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | SFO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | KAN | 16 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 130 | 16.3 | 0 | 8.1 |
| 2014 | KAN | 9 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 93 | 10.3 | 0 | 10.3 |
| Career | 28 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 223 | 13.1 | 0 | 8.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Illinois | Big Ten | 12 | 11 | 287 | 3 | 26.1 | 23.9 |
| 2009 | Illinois | Big Ten | 8 | 10 | 123 | 1 | 12.3 | 15.4 |
| 2010 | Illinois | Big Ten | 13 | 56 | 746 | 7 | 13.3 | 57.4 |
| 2011 | Illinois | Big Ten | 13 | 90 | 1,276 | 8 | 14.2 | 98.2 |
| Career | 46 | 167 | 2,432 | 19 | 14.6 | 52.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
52%
ML model output
Context Prob
66%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.073
Physical production synergy+0.317
BMI 25.8 — ideal frame for NFL WR (190 lbs)+0.257
Top Negative Factors
-1.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.708
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.375
Efficiency consistency: 1.79 — highly consistent across seasons-0.327