Player breakdown
Eric Decker
Minnesota · 2010 Draft Class
6-3217 lbs3rd round, 87th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
79%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | DEN | 14 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 106 | 17.7 | 1 | 7.6 |
| 2011 | DEN | 16 | 13 | 96 | 44 | 612 | 13.9 | 8 | 38.3 |
| 2012 | DEN | 16 | 15 | 122 | 85 | 1,064 | 12.5 | 13 | 66.5 |
| 2013 | DEN | 16 | 16 | 136 | 87 | 1,288 | 14.8 | 11 | 80.5 |
| 2014 | NYJ | 15 | 15 | 115 | 74 | 962 | 13 | 5 | 64.1 |
| 2015 | NYJ | 15 | 13 | 132 | 80 | 1,027 | 12.8 | 12 | 68.5 |
| 2016 | NYJ | 3 | 3 | 21 | 9 | 194 | 21.6 | 2 | 64.7 |
| 2017 | TEN | 16 | 8 | 83 | 54 | 563 | 10.4 | 1 | 35.2 |
| Career | 111 | 83 | 713 | 439 | 5,816 | 13.2 | 53 | 52.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 13 | 26 | 378 | 3 | 14.5 | 29.1 |
| 2007 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 12 | 67 | 909 | 9 | 13.6 | 75.8 |
| 2008 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 12 | 84 | 1,074 | 7 | 12.8 | 89.5 |
| 2009 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 8 | 50 | 758 | 5 | 15.2 | 94.8 |
| Career | 45 | 227 | 3,119 | 24 | 13.7 | 69.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
84%
ML model output
Context Prob
50%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 13% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.161
32.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.328
BMI 27.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (217 lbs)+0.248
Top Negative Factors
+12.3 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.330
Improvement accelerating (+1.8) — getting better faster each year-0.246
Recruit dominator synergy-0.211