Player breakdown
Alec Pierce
Cincinnati · 2022 Draft Class
6-3211 lbs2nd round, 53rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
Low1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
39%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | IND | 16 | 12 | 78 | 41 | 593 | 14.5 | 2 | 37.1 |
| 2023 | IND | 17 | 16 | 65 | 32 | 514 | 16.1 | 2 | 30.2 |
| 2024 | IND | 16 | 13 | 69 | 37 | 824 | 22.3 | 7 | 51.5 |
| 2025 | IND | 15 | 14 | 84 | 47 | 1,003 | 21.3 | 6 | 66.9 |
| Career | 64 | 55 | 296 | 157 | 2,934 | 18.7 | 17 | 45.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Cincinnati | American | 14 | 37 | 652 | 2 | 17.6 | 46.6 |
| 2020 | Cincinnati | American | 6 | 17 | 315 | 3 | 18.5 | 52.5 |
| 2021 | Cincinnati | American | 14 | 52 | 884 | 7 | 17 | 63.1 |
| Career | 34 | 106 | 1,851 | 12 | 17.5 | 54.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
39%
ML model output
Context Prob
40%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.248
Recruit dominator synergy+0.487
Class YPR rank: top 12% — elite per-target efficiency+0.214
Top Negative Factors
-1.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.750
Physical production synergy-0.433
0.35 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.351