Player breakdown
Alred Luke
Missouri State · 2026 Draft Class
Undrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 12 | 23 | 293 | 1 | 12.7 | 24.4 |
| 2023 | Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 10 | 16 | 184 | 1 | 11.5 | 18.4 |
| 2025 | Missouri State | CUSA | 13 | 43 | 640 | 5 | 14.9 | 49.2 |
| Career | 35 | 82 | 1,117 | 7 | 13.6 | 31.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
7%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.468
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.281
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.202
Top Negative Factors
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.734
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.593
Improvement accelerating (+1.2) — getting better faster each year-0.432