Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Alred Luke
Alred Luke

Player breakdown

Alred Luke

Missouri State · 2026 Draft Class

Undrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

8%

SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2022Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt1223293112.724.4
2023Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt1016184111.518.4
2025Missouri StateCUSA1343640514.949.2
Career35821,117713.631.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

30%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Recruit dominator synergy+0.468
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.281
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.202

Top Negative Factors

+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.734
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.593
Improvement accelerating (+1.2) — getting better faster each year-0.432

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)