Player breakdown
Puka Nacua
BYU · 2023 Draft Class
6-2201 lbs5th round, 177th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
High1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
60%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | LAR | 17 | 17 | 160 | 105 | 1,486 | 14.2 | 6 | 87.4 |
| 2024 | LAR | 11 | 11 | 106 | 79 | 990 | 12.5 | 3 | 90 |
| 2025 | LAR | 16 | 15 | 166 | 129 | 1,715 | 13.3 | 10 | 107.2 |
| Career | 44 | 43 | 432 | 313 | 4,191 | 13.4 | 19 | 95.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Washington | Pac-12 | 8 | 7 | 168 | 2 | 24 | 21 |
| 2020 | Washington | Pac-12 | 3 | 9 | 151 | 1 | 16.8 | 50.3 |
| 2021 | BYU | Ind | 12 | 43 | 805 | 6 | 18.7 | 67.1 |
| 2022 | BYU | Ind | 9 | 48 | 625 | 5 | 13 | 69.4 |
| Career | 32 | 107 | 1,749 | 14 | 16.3 | 54.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
63%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.214
Class YPR rank: top 19% — elite per-target efficiency+0.234
BMI 25.8 — ideal frame for NFL WR (201 lbs)+0.214
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+3.8) — getting better faster each year-0.396
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.376
+12.1 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.278