Player breakdown
ArDarius Stewart
Alabama · 2017 Draft Class
5-11204 lbs3rd round, 79th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
41%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | NYJ | 15 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 82 | 13.7 | 0 | 5.5 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
5%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
9
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 33% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.236
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.96 — elite recruit at elite school+0.196
BMI 28.4 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (204 lbs)+0.190
Top Negative Factors
-13.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.751
0.30 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.393
Physical production synergy-0.391