Player breakdown
Arian Smith
Georgia · 2025 Draft Class
6-0179 lbs4th round, 110th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~24
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $1.5M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
40%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NYJ | 16 | 5 | 16 | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 | 3.3 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Georgia | SEC | 4 | 2 | 86 | 1 | 43 | 21.5 |
| 2021 | Georgia | SEC | 4 | 3 | 102 | 2 | 34 | 25.5 |
| 2022 | Georgia | SEC | 11 | 7 | 198 | 1 | 28.3 | 18 |
| 2023 | Georgia | SEC | 14 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 19.1 | 10.9 |
| 2024 | Georgia | SEC | 14 | 48 | 817 | 4 | 17 | 58.4 |
| Career | 47 | 68 | 1,356 | 10 | 19.9 | 28.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
4%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
10
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 16% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.105
BMI 24.3 — ideal frame for NFL WR (179 lbs)+0.222
Class YPR rank: top 3% — elite per-target efficiency+0.212
Top Negative Factors
-23.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.769
0.21 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.499
Improvement accelerating (+8.5) — getting better faster each year-0.481