Player breakdown
Ashtyn Hawkins
Baylor · 2026 Draft Class
5-10168 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~23
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
5%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 11 | 30 | 284 | 1 | 9.5 | 25.8 |
| 2022 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 9 | 56 | 587 | 7 | 10.5 | 65.2 |
| 2023 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 13 | 55 | 874 | 3 | 15.9 | 67.2 |
| 2024 | Baylor | Big 12 | 13 | 45 | 567 | 5 | 12.6 | 43.6 |
| 2025 | Baylor | Big 12 | 12 | 53 | 621 | 0 | 11.7 | 51.8 |
| Career | 58 | 239 | 2,933 | 16 | 12.3 | 50.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
3%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+0.926
Efficiency consistency: 1.04 — highly consistent across seasons+0.206
BMI 24.1 — ideal frame for NFL WR (168 lbs)+0.166
Top Negative Factors
-3.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.718
Physical production synergy-0.556
0.20 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.470