Player breakdown
Austin Pettis
Boise St. · 2011 Draft Class
6-3209 lbs3rd round, 78th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | STL | 12 | 3 | 48 | 27 | 256 | 9.5 | 0 | 21.3 |
| 2012 | STL | 14 | 2 | 48 | 30 | 261 | 8.7 | 4 | 18.6 |
| 2013 | STL | 16 | 6 | 63 | 38 | 399 | 10.5 | 4 | 24.9 |
| 2014 | STL | 5 | 0 | 17 | 12 | 118 | 9.8 | 1 | 23.6 |
| Career | 47 | 11 | 176 | 107 | 1,034 | 9.7 | 9 | 22.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Boise State | WAC | 13 | 46 | 465 | 6 | 10.1 | 35.8 |
| 2008 | Boise State | WAC | 13 | 49 | 567 | 9 | 11.6 | 43.6 |
| 2009 | Boise State | WAC | 13 | 63 | 855 | 14 | 13.6 | 65.8 |
| 2010 | Boise State | WAC | 13 | 71 | 951 | 10 | 13.4 | 73.2 |
| Career | 52 | 229 | 2,838 | 39 | 12.4 | 54.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
2%
ML model output
Context Prob
40%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.96x — route-running independent of system+0.168
Recruit dominator synergy+0.159
Speed score 96.7 — strong weight-adjusted athleticism+0.147
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.702
-1.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.710
Physical production synergy-0.537