Predicting the Pros
Predictions/James Jones
James Jones

Player breakdown

James Jones

San Jose St. · 2007 Draft Class

6-1207 lbs3rd round, 78th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

15%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2007GNB169804767614.4242.3
2008GNB102302027413.7127.4
2009GNB163623244013.8527.5
2010GNB163875067913.6542.4
2011GNB160553863516.7739.7
2012GNB1616986478412.31449
2013GNB1414935981713.8358.4
2014OAK1610112736669.1641.6
2015GNB1615995089017.8855.6
Career136727164335,86113.55143.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2003San Jose StateWAC918080.9
2004San Jose StateWAC1125317112.728.8
2005San Jose StateWAC113027819.325.3
2006San Jose StateWAC13708931012.868.7
2024Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt104802208
Career541301,5761412.129.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

10%

ML model output

Context Prob

48%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

2

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.9 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.277
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.196
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 1.01x — route-running independent of system+0.182

Top Negative Factors

Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.812
-22.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.758
Improvement accelerating (+110.6) — getting better faster each year-0.432

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)