Player breakdown
Braden Pegan
Utah State · 2026 Draft Class
6-4195 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
32%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | Utah State | MWC | 12 | 60 | 926 | 5 | 15.4 | 77.2 |
| Career | 21 | 61 | 933 | 5 | 15.3 | 44.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
30%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 17% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.193
Recruit dominator synergy+0.295
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.192
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+131.3) — getting better faster each year-0.541
Physical production synergy-0.490
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.380