Player breakdown
Michael Pittman Jr.
USC · 2020 Draft Class
6-4209 lbs2nd round, 34th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
77%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | IND | 13 | 8 | 61 | 40 | 503 | 12.6 | 1 | 38.7 |
| 2021 | IND | 17 | 17 | 129 | 88 | 1,082 | 12.3 | 6 | 63.6 |
| 2022 | IND | 16 | 16 | 141 | 99 | 925 | 9.3 | 4 | 57.8 |
| 2023 | IND | 16 | 15 | 156 | 109 | 1,152 | 10.6 | 4 | 72 |
| 2024 | IND | 16 | 14 | 111 | 69 | 808 | 11.7 | 3 | 50.5 |
| 2025 | IND | 17 | 16 | 111 | 80 | 784 | 9.8 | 7 | 46.1 |
| Career | 95 | 86 | 709 | 485 | 5,254 | 10.8 | 25 | 55.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | USC | Pac-12 | 13 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 13.7 | 6.3 |
| 2017 | USC | Pac-12 | 11 | 23 | 404 | 2 | 17.6 | 36.7 |
| 2018 | USC | Pac-12 | 11 | 41 | 758 | 6 | 18.5 | 68.9 |
| 2019 | USC | Pac-12 | 13 | 101 | 1,275 | 11 | 12.6 | 98.1 |
| Career | 48 | 171 | 2,519 | 19 | 14.7 | 52.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
36%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
6
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 29% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.166
Recruit dominator synergy+0.485
6.3 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.274
Top Negative Factors
-3.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.690
Improvement accelerating (+14.6) — getting better faster each year-0.579
Physical production synergy-0.354