Player breakdown
Brandon Aiyuk
Arizona St. · 2020 Draft Class
6-0205 lbs1st round, 25th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
Medium1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
55%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | SFO | 12 | 11 | 96 | 60 | 748 | 12.5 | 5 | 62.3 |
| 2021 | SFO | 17 | 16 | 84 | 56 | 826 | 14.8 | 5 | 48.6 |
| 2022 | SFO | 17 | 17 | 114 | 78 | 1,015 | 13 | 8 | 59.7 |
| 2023 | SFO | 16 | 16 | 105 | 75 | 1,342 | 17.9 | 7 | 83.9 |
| 2024 | SFO | 7 | 7 | 47 | 25 | 374 | 15 | 0 | 53.4 |
| Career | 69 | 67 | 446 | 294 | 4,305 | 14.6 | 25 | 62.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 13 | 33 | 474 | 3 | 14.4 | 36.5 |
| 2019 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 12 | 65 | 1,192 | 8 | 18.3 | 99.3 |
| Career | 25 | 98 | 1,666 | 11 | 17.0 | 66.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
53%
ML model output
Context Prob
65%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.130
BMI 27.8 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (205 lbs)+0.242
Accounted for 3.11 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.215
Top Negative Factors
+10.7 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.684
Physical production synergy-0.607
Improvement accelerating (+1.5) — getting better faster each year-0.279