Player breakdown
Brenden Rice
USC · 2024 Draft Class
6-2208 lbs7th round, 225th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~24
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
64%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Colorado | Pac-12 | 6 | 6 | 120 | 2 | 20 | 20 |
| 2021 | Colorado | Pac-12 | 11 | 21 | 299 | 3 | 14.2 | 27.2 |
| 2022 | USC | Pac-12 | 14 | 39 | 611 | 4 | 15.7 | 43.6 |
| 2023 | USC | Pac-12 | 12 | 45 | 791 | 12 | 17.6 | 65.9 |
| Career | 43 | 111 | 1,821 | 21 | 16.4 | 42.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
60%
ML model output
Context Prob
87%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 29% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.286
Physical production synergy+0.389
0.62 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.233
Top Negative Factors
-2.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.735
Accounted for 1.71 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.432
Improvement accelerating (+5.6) — getting better faster each year-0.305