Player breakdown
Nico Collins
Michigan · 2021 Draft Class
6-4215 lbs3rd round, 89th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
High1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | HOU | 14 | 8 | 60 | 33 | 446 | 13.5 | 1 | 31.9 |
| 2022 | HOU | 10 | 7 | 66 | 37 | 481 | 13 | 2 | 48.1 |
| 2023 | HOU | 15 | 10 | 109 | 80 | 1,297 | 16.2 | 8 | 86.5 |
| 2024 | HOU | 12 | 12 | 99 | 68 | 1,006 | 14.8 | 7 | 83.8 |
| 2025 | HOU | 15 | 15 | 120 | 71 | 1,117 | 15.7 | 6 | 74.5 |
| Career | 66 | 52 | 454 | 289 | 4,347 | 15.0 | 24 | 65.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Michigan | Big Ten | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 6.8 |
| 2018 | Michigan | Big Ten | 13 | 38 | 632 | 6 | 16.6 | 48.6 |
| 2019 | Michigan | Big Ten | 12 | 37 | 729 | 7 | 19.7 | 60.8 |
| Career | 29 | 78 | 1,388 | 13 | 17.8 | 47.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
52%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.306
6.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.284
Physical production synergy+0.277
Top Negative Factors
-8.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.751
Accounted for 1.78 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.432
Improvement accelerating (+26.0) — getting better faster each year-0.361