Player breakdown
Brenen Thompson
Mississippi State · 2026 Draft Class
5-9164 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
32%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Texas | Big 12 | 9 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 32 | 3.6 |
| 2023 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 7 | 7 | 241 | 2 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| 2024 | Oklahoma | SEC | 11 | 19 | 230 | 2 | 12.1 | 20.9 |
| 2025 | Mississippi State | SEC | 13 | 57 | 1,054 | 6 | 18.5 | 81.1 |
| Career | 40 | 84 | 1,557 | 10 | 18.5 | 38.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
29%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
+29.8 ypg vs. draft class average — above average+0.280
BMI 24.2 — ideal frame for NFL WR (164 lbs)+0.231
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.95 — elite recruit at elite school+0.209
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.542
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.508
Improvement accelerating (+31.9) — getting better faster each year-0.483