Player breakdown
Marquise Brown
Oklahoma · 2019 Draft Class
5-9166 lbs1st round, 25th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | BAL | 14 | 11 | 71 | 46 | 584 | 12.7 | 7 | 41.7 |
| 2020 | BAL | 16 | 14 | 100 | 58 | 769 | 13.3 | 8 | 48.1 |
| 2021 | BAL | 16 | 16 | 146 | 91 | 1,008 | 11.1 | 6 | 63 |
| 2022 | ARI | 12 | 10 | 107 | 67 | 709 | 10.6 | 3 | 59.1 |
| 2023 | ARI | 14 | 14 | 101 | 51 | 574 | 11.3 | 4 | 41 |
| 2024 | KAN | 2 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 91 | 10.1 | 0 | 45.5 |
| 2025 | KAN | 16 | 6 | 74 | 49 | 587 | 12 | 5 | 36.7 |
| Career | 90 | 72 | 614 | 371 | 4,322 | 11.6 | 33 | 48.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 13 | 57 | 1,095 | 7 | 19.2 | 84.2 |
| 2018 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 14 | 75 | 1,318 | 10 | 17.6 | 94.1 |
| Career | 27 | 132 | 2,413 | 17 | 18.3 | 89.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
94%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.059
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.502
+38.0 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.274
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.442
Recruit dominator synergy-0.208
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.186