Player breakdown
Brian Thomas
LSU · 2024 Draft Class
6-3209 lbs1st round, 23rd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~23
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
81%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | JAX | 17 | 16 | 133 | 87 | 1,282 | 14.7 | 10 | 75.4 |
| 2025 | JAX | 14 | 14 | 91 | 48 | 707 | 14.7 | 2 | 50.5 |
| Career | 31 | 30 | 224 | 135 | 1,989 | 14.7 | 12 | 64.2 | |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
85%
ML model output
Context Prob
60%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 31% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.285
Physical production synergy+0.285
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.234
Top Negative Factors
-6.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.675
Recruit dominator synergy-0.280
Improvement accelerating (+2.3) — getting better faster each year-0.214