Player breakdown
Brice Butler
San Diego St. · 2013 Draft Class
6-2178 lbs7th round, 209th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | OAK | 10 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 103 | 11.4 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2014 | OAK | 15 | 0 | 35 | 21 | 280 | 13.3 | 2 | 18.7 |
| 2015 | DAL | 7 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 258 | 21.5 | 0 | 36.9 |
| 2016 | DAL | 16 | 3 | 32 | 16 | 219 | 13.7 | 3 | 13.7 |
| 2017 | DAL | 13 | 0 | 23 | 15 | 317 | 21.1 | 3 | 24.4 |
| 2018 | 2TM | 8 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 7.5 |
| 2018 | DAL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | MIA | 6 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| Career | 77 | 9 | 153 | 85 | 1,297 | 15.3 | 10 | 16.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | USC | Pac-10 | 13 | 20 | 292 | 2 | 14.6 | 22.5 |
| 2010 | USC | Pac-10 | 12 | 9 | 112 | 1 | 12.4 | 9.3 |
| 2011 | USC | Pac-12 | 11 | 12 | 150 | 0 | 12.5 | 13.6 |
| 2012 | San Diego State | MWC | 13 | 24 | 347 | 4 | 14.5 | 26.7 |
| Career | 49 | 65 | 901 | 7 | 13.9 | 18.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
3%
ML model output
Context Prob
38%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.516
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.275
Team averaged 23.8 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.177
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.254
-25.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.553
Accounted for 1.12 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.324