Player breakdown
Jeremy Kerley
TCU · 2011 Draft Class
5-9189 lbs5th round, 153rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~37
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
5%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | NYJ | 14 | 1 | 47 | 29 | 314 | 10.8 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 2012 | NYJ | 16 | 7 | 95 | 56 | 827 | 14.8 | 2 | 51.7 |
| 2013 | NYJ | 12 | 8 | 72 | 43 | 523 | 12.2 | 3 | 43.6 |
| 2014 | NYJ | 16 | 7 | 75 | 38 | 409 | 10.8 | 1 | 25.6 |
| 2015 | NYJ | 16 | 1 | 26 | 16 | 152 | 9.5 | 2 | 9.5 |
| 2016 | SFO | 16 | 13 | 115 | 64 | 667 | 10.4 | 3 | 41.7 |
| 2017 | NYJ | 8 | 2 | 27 | 22 | 217 | 9.9 | 1 | 27.1 |
| 2018 | BUF | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 7 |
| Career | 99 | 40 | 461 | 270 | 3,116 | 11.5 | 13 | 31.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Texas Christian | MWC | 13 | 9 | 97 | 0 | 10.8 | 7.5 |
| 2008 | Texas Christian | MWC | 11 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| 2009 | Texas Christian | MWC | 13 | 44 | 532 | 2 | 12.1 | 40.9 |
| 2010 | Texas Christian | MWC | 13 | 56 | 575 | 10 | 10.3 | 44.2 |
| Career | 50 | 120 | 1,299 | 12 | 10.8 | 26.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
7.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.273
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.75x — route-running independent of system+0.191
Volume + efficiency: 0.42 — solid combined output within draft class+0.154
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.319
-28.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.558
Improvement accelerating (+4.9) — getting better faster each year-0.428