Player breakdown
Bruce Ellington
South Carolina · 2014 Draft Class
5-9197 lbs4th round, 106th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
17%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | SFO | 13 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 2 | 4.8 |
| 2015 | SFO | 13 | 0 | 19 | 13 | 153 | 11.8 | 0 | 11.8 |
| 2017 | HOU | 11 | 6 | 57 | 29 | 330 | 11.4 | 2 | 30 |
| 2018 | 2TM | 7 | 3 | 42 | 31 | 224 | 7.2 | 1 | 32 |
| 2018 | HOU | 3 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 92 | 11.5 | 1 | 30.7 |
| 2018 | DET | 4 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 132 | 5.7 | 0 | 33 |
| Career | 51 | 12 | 172 | 110 | 993 | 9.0 | 6 | 19.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | South Carolina | SEC | 13 | 17 | 211 | 1 | 12.4 | 16.2 |
| 2012 | South Carolina | SEC | 13 | 40 | 600 | 7 | 15 | 46.2 |
| 2013 | South Carolina | SEC | 12 | 49 | 775 | 8 | 15.8 | 64.6 |
| Career | 38 | 106 | 1,586 | 16 | 15.0 | 41.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
11%
ML model output
Context Prob
48%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 20% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.308
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.97 — elite recruit at elite school+0.217
BMI 29.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (197 lbs)+0.204
Top Negative Factors
-12.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.758
Physical production synergy-0.518
Improvement accelerating (+2.7) — getting better faster each year-0.345