Player breakdown
Calvin Austin III
Memphis · 2022 Draft Class
5-8170 lbs4th round, 138th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
32%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | PIT | 17 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 180 | 10.6 | 1 | 10.6 |
| 2024 | PIT | 17 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 548 | 15.2 | 4 | 32.2 |
| 2025 | PIT | 14 | 7 | 55 | 31 | 372 | 12 | 3 | 26.6 |
| Career | 48 | 16 | 143 | 84 | 1,100 | 13.1 | 8 | 22.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Memphis | American | 9 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 2.7 |
| 2019 | Memphis | American | 13 | 17 | 315 | 3 | 18.5 | 24.2 |
| 2020 | Memphis | American | 11 | 63 | 1,053 | 11 | 16.7 | 95.7 |
| 2021 | Memphis | American | 12 | 74 | 1,149 | 8 | 15.5 | 95.8 |
| Career | 45 | 156 | 2,541 | 22 | 16.3 | 56.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
12%
ML model output
Context Prob
69%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.270
2.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.235
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.213
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.872
+5.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.729
Physical production synergy-0.547