Player breakdown
Courtland Sutton
SMU · 2018 Draft Class
6-3218 lbs2nd round, 40th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | DEN | 16 | 9 | 84 | 42 | 704 | 16.8 | 4 | 44 |
| 2019 | DEN | 16 | 14 | 124 | 72 | 1,112 | 15.4 | 6 | 69.5 |
| 2020 | DEN | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 66 | 22 | 0 | 66 |
| 2021 | DEN | 17 | 16 | 98 | 58 | 776 | 13.4 | 2 | 45.6 |
| 2022 | DEN | 15 | 15 | 109 | 64 | 829 | 13 | 2 | 55.3 |
| 2023 | DEN | 16 | 14 | 90 | 59 | 772 | 13.1 | 10 | 48.3 |
| 2024 | DEN | 17 | 13 | 135 | 81 | 1,081 | 13.3 | 8 | 63.6 |
| 2025 | DEN | 17 | 16 | 124 | 74 | 1,017 | 13.7 | 7 | 59.8 |
| Career | 115 | 98 | 770 | 453 | 6,357 | 14.0 | 39 | 55.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | SMU | American | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 13.5 | 9 |
| 2015 | SMU | American | 12 | 49 | 862 | 9 | 17.6 | 71.8 |
| 2016 | SMU | American | 12 | 76 | 1,246 | 10 | 16.4 | 103.8 |
| 2017 | SMU | American | 13 | 68 | 1,085 | 12 | 16 | 83.5 |
| Career | 40 | 195 | 3,220 | 31 | 16.5 | 80.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
97%
ML model output
Context Prob
94%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 18% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.274
Physical production synergy+0.414
32.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.304
Top Negative Factors
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.374
Improvement accelerating (+45.1) — getting better faster each year-0.339
Recruit dominator synergy-0.204