Player breakdown
Julio Jones
Alabama · 2011 Draft Class
6-3220 lbs1st round, 6th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~37
EliteAll-Conference x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
83%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | ATL | 13 | 13 | 95 | 54 | 959 | 17.8 | 8 | 73.8 |
| 2012 | ATL | 16 | 15 | 128 | 79 | 1,198 | 15.2 | 10 | 74.9 |
| 2013 | ATL | 5 | 5 | 59 | 41 | 580 | 14.1 | 2 | 116 |
| 2014 | ATL | 15 | 15 | 163 | 104 | 1,593 | 15.3 | 6 | 106.2 |
| 2015 | ATL | 16 | 16 | 203 | 136 | 1,871 | 13.8 | 8 | 116.9 |
| 2016 | ATL | 14 | 14 | 129 | 83 | 1,409 | 17 | 6 | 100.6 |
| 2017 | ATL | 16 | 16 | 148 | 88 | 1,444 | 16.4 | 3 | 90.3 |
| 2018 | ATL | 16 | 16 | 170 | 113 | 1,677 | 14.8 | 8 | 104.8 |
| 2019 | ATL | 15 | 15 | 157 | 99 | 1,394 | 14.1 | 6 | 92.9 |
| 2020 | ATL | 9 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 771 | 15.1 | 3 | 85.7 |
| 2021 | TEN | 10 | 10 | 48 | 31 | 434 | 14 | 1 | 43.4 |
| 2022 | TAM | 10 | 5 | 43 | 24 | 299 | 12.5 | 2 | 29.9 |
| 2023 | PHI | 11 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 74 | 6.7 | 3 | 6.7 |
| Career | 166 | 153 | 1430 | 914 | 13,703 | 15.0 | 66 | 82.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Alabama | SEC | 14 | 58 | 924 | 4 | 15.9 | 66 |
| 2009 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 43 | 596 | 4 | 13.9 | 45.8 |
| 2010 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 78 | 1,133 | 7 | 14.5 | 87.2 |
| Career | 40 | 179 | 2,653 | 15 | 14.8 | 66.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
83%
ML model output
Context Prob
62%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 33% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.214
Physical production synergy+0.444
Accounted for 3.14 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.242
Top Negative Factors
+9.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.698
0.38 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.277
Recruit dominator synergy-0.249