Player breakdown
Carl Chester
Southern Mississippi · 2026 Draft Class
6-4190 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
22%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tulsa | American | 12 | 22 | 401 | 1 | 18.2 | 33.4 |
| 2024 | Marshall | Sun Belt | 13 | 20 | 342 | 3 | 17.1 | 26.3 |
| 2025 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 13 | 31 | 551 | 6 | 17.8 | 42.4 |
| Career | 38 | 73 | 1,294 | 10 | 17.7 | 34.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
20%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.499
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.257
Class YPR rank: top 7% — elite per-target efficiency+0.232
Top Negative Factors
-12.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.748
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.511
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.362