Player breakdown
Carl Ford
Toledo · 2003 Draft Class
7th round, 256th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~45
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Toledo | MAC | 10 | 9 | 86 | 0 | 9.6 | 8.6 |
| 2001 | Toledo | MAC | 11 | 46 | 646 | 6 | 14 | 58.7 |
| 2002 | Toledo | MAC | 14 | 79 | 1,062 | 9 | 13.4 | 75.9 |
| Career | 35 | 134 | 1,794 | 15 | 13.4 | 51.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
48%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
8.6 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.283
50.6 conference-adjusted ypg — SEC/Big Ten players penalized less than spread teams+0.171
51.3 career ypg — limited college production+0.125
Top Negative Factors
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.730
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.659
Improvement accelerating (+11.3) — getting better faster each year-0.594