Player breakdown
Carlos Francis
Texas Tech · 2004 Draft Class
5-9198 lbs4th round, 99th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~45
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
23%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 12 | 41 | 519 | 2 | 12.7 | 43.3 |
| 2001 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 11 | 50 | 703 | 3 | 14.1 | 63.9 |
| 2002 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 13 | 50 | 632 | 7 | 12.6 | 48.6 |
| 2003 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 13 | 75 | 1,177 | 9 | 15.7 | 90.5 |
| Career | 49 | 216 | 3,031 | 21 | 14.0 | 61.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
16%
ML model output
Context Prob
62%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.106
Recruit dominator synergy+0.454
BMI 29.2 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (198 lbs)+0.214
Top Negative Factors
+7.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.715
Physical production synergy-0.546
Accounted for 1.51 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.436