Player breakdown
Carlos Henderson
Louisiana Tech · 2017 Draft Class
5-11199 lbs3rd round, 82nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
49%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 12 | 29 | 569 | 4 | 19.6 | 47.4 |
| 2015 | Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 11 | 36 | 774 | 5 | 21.5 | 70.4 |
| 2016 | Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 13 | 82 | 1,535 | 19 | 18.7 | 118.1 |
| Career | 36 | 147 | 2,878 | 28 | 19.6 | 79.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
29%
ML model output
Context Prob
85%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Speed × production: 154.4 — elite combined athletic output+0.245
BMI 27.8 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (199 lbs)+0.224
Speed score 100.6 — strong weight-adjusted athleticism+0.195
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.572
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.539
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.402