Player breakdown
Casey Washington
Illinois · 2024 Draft Class
6-2200 lbs6th round, 187th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
14%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ATL | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | ATL | 7 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 94 | 15.7 | 0 | 13.4 |
| Career | 15 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 108 | 15.4 | 0 | 7.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Illinois | Big Ten | 10 | 11 | 132 | 0 | 12 | 13.2 |
| 2020 | Illinois | Big Ten | 8 | 10 | 106 | 0 | 10.6 | 13.3 |
| 2021 | Illinois | Big Ten | 12 | 21 | 294 | 0 | 14 | 24.5 |
| 2022 | Illinois | Big Ten | 13 | 31 | 306 | 0 | 9.9 | 23.5 |
| 2023 | Illinois | Big Ten | 12 | 49 | 670 | 4 | 13.7 | 55.8 |
| Career | 55 | 122 | 1,508 | 4 | 12.4 | 27.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
9%
ML model output
Context Prob
37%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.139
Recruit dominator synergy+0.504
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.99x — route-running independent of system+0.197
Top Negative Factors
-27.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.740
0.07 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.477
Improvement accelerating (+4.1) — getting better faster each year-0.456