Player breakdown
Michael Wilson
Stanford · 2023 Draft Class
6-2213 lbs3rd round, 94th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
Low1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
15%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ARI | 13 | 12 | 58 | 38 | 565 | 14.9 | 3 | 43.5 |
| 2024 | ARI | 16 | 13 | 71 | 47 | 548 | 11.7 | 4 | 34.3 |
| 2025 | ARI | 17 | 13 | 126 | 78 | 1,006 | 12.9 | 7 | 59.2 |
| Career | 46 | 38 | 255 | 163 | 2,119 | 13.0 | 14 | 46.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 13 | 14 | 126 | 1 | 9 | 9.7 |
| 2019 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 12 | 56 | 672 | 5 | 12 | 56 |
| 2020 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 4 | 19 | 261 | 1 | 13.7 | 65.3 |
| 2021 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 4 | 19 | 185 | 0 | 9.7 | 46.3 |
| 2022 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 6 | 26 | 418 | 4 | 16.1 | 69.7 |
| Career | 39 | 134 | 1,662 | 11 | 12.4 | 42.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
11%
ML model output
Context Prob
33%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.162
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.69x — route-running independent of system+0.198
Volume + efficiency: 0.46 — solid combined output within draft class+0.162
Top Negative Factors
-13.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.748
Accounted for 1.51 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.425
0.28 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.421