Player breakdown
Chase Sowell
Iowa State · 2026 Draft Class
6-2185 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
3%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Colorado | Pac-12 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 11.5 | 7.7 |
| 2023 | East Carolina | American | 12 | 47 | 622 | 1 | 13.2 | 51.8 |
| 2024 | East Carolina | American | 9 | 34 | 678 | 3 | 19.9 | 75.3 |
| 2025 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 12 | 32 | 500 | 2 | 15.6 | 41.7 |
| Career | 36 | 115 | 1,823 | 6 | 15.9 | 50.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
2%
ML model output
Context Prob
37%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.373
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.219
BMI 23.8 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (185 lbs)+0.205
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.095
-10.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.728
Improvement accelerating (+28.5) — getting better faster each year-0.538