Player breakdown
Chris Dawn Jr.
Texas State · 2026 Draft Class
5-7170 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 9 | 9 | 86 | 0 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| 2024 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 13 | 37 | 418 | 6 | 11.3 | 32.2 |
| 2025 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 12 | 65 | 1,007 | 4 | 15.5 | 83.9 |
| Career | 34 | 111 | 1,511 | 10 | 13.6 | 44.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
2%
ML model output
Context Prob
48%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.348
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.182
3.3 catches/game — secondary receiver+0.148
Top Negative Factors
-6.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.736
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.678
Improvement accelerating (+10.7) — getting better faster each year-0.585