Player breakdown
Tank Dell
Houston · 2023 Draft Class
5-8165 lbs3rd round, 69th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
40%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | HOU | 11 | 8 | 75 | 47 | 709 | 15.1 | 7 | 64.5 |
| 2024 | HOU | 14 | 10 | 81 | 51 | 667 | 13.1 | 3 | 47.6 |
| Career | 25 | 18 | 156 | 98 | 1,376 | 14.0 | 10 | 55.0 | |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
38%
ML model output
Context Prob
50%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.435
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.230
+38.8 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.205
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.649
Physical production synergy-0.500
Improvement accelerating (+2.3) — getting better faster each year-0.343