Player breakdown
Justin Jefferson
LSU · 2020 Draft Class
6-1202 lbs1st round, 22nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~27
EliteAll-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
86%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | MIN | 16 | 14 | 125 | 88 | 1,400 | 15.9 | 7 | 87.5 |
| 2021 | MIN | 17 | 17 | 167 | 108 | 1,616 | 15 | 10 | 95.1 |
| 2022 | MIN | 17 | 17 | 184 | 128 | 1,809 | 14.1 | 8 | 106.4 |
| 2023 | MIN | 10 | 9 | 100 | 68 | 1,074 | 15.8 | 5 | 107.4 |
| 2024 | MIN | 17 | 17 | 154 | 103 | 1,533 | 14.9 | 10 | 90.2 |
| 2025 | MIN | 17 | 17 | 141 | 84 | 1,048 | 12.5 | 2 | 61.6 |
| Career | 94 | 91 | 871 | 579 | 8,480 | 14.6 | 42 | 90.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | LSU | SEC | 13 | 54 | 875 | 6 | 16.2 | 67.3 |
| 2019 | LSU | SEC | 15 | 111 | 1,540 | 18 | 13.9 | 102.7 |
| Career | 28 | 165 | 2,415 | 24 | 14.6 | 86.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
92%
ML model output
Context Prob
75%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 31% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.260
Recruit dominator synergy+0.368
Physical production synergy+0.337
Top Negative Factors
Efficiency consistency: 1.11 — highly consistent across seasons-0.242
52.5 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.173
54 freshman catches — featured from day one-0.128