Player breakdown
Collin Johnson
Texas · 2020 Draft Class
6-6222 lbs5th round, 165th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
7%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | JAX | 14 | 0 | 31 | 18 | 272 | 15.1 | 2 | 19.4 |
| 2021 | NYG | 12 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 105 | 9.5 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 2023 | CHI | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | CHI | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Career | 38 | 1 | 55 | 31 | 394 | 12.7 | 2 | 10.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Texas | Big 12 | 11 | 28 | 315 | 3 | 11.3 | 28.6 |
| 2017 | Texas | Big 12 | 13 | 54 | 765 | 2 | 14.2 | 58.8 |
| 2018 | Texas | Big 12 | 13 | 68 | 985 | 7 | 14.5 | 75.8 |
| 2019 | Texas | Big 12 | 7 | 38 | 559 | 3 | 14.7 | 79.9 |
| Career | 44 | 188 | 2,624 | 15 | 14.0 | 59.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 7% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+0.343
BMI 25.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (222 lbs)+0.188
59.6 career ypg — limited college production+0.134
Top Negative Factors
+2.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.754
Physical production synergy-0.559
Improvement accelerating (+2.1) — getting better faster each year-0.380