Player breakdown
Tyler Lockett
Kansas St. · 2015 Draft Class
5-10182 lbs3rd round, 69th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
93%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | SEA | 16 | 8 | 69 | 51 | 664 | 13 | 6 | 41.5 |
| 2016 | SEA | 15 | 9 | 66 | 41 | 597 | 14.6 | 1 | 39.8 |
| 2017 | SEA | 16 | 8 | 71 | 45 | 555 | 12.3 | 2 | 34.7 |
| 2018 | SEA | 16 | 14 | 70 | 57 | 965 | 16.9 | 10 | 60.3 |
| 2019 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 110 | 82 | 1,057 | 12.9 | 8 | 66.1 |
| 2020 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 132 | 100 | 1,054 | 10.5 | 10 | 65.9 |
| 2021 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 107 | 73 | 1,175 | 16.1 | 8 | 73.4 |
| 2022 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 117 | 84 | 1,033 | 12.3 | 9 | 64.6 |
| 2023 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 122 | 79 | 894 | 11.3 | 5 | 52.6 |
| 2024 | SEA | 17 | 14 | 74 | 49 | 600 | 12.2 | 2 | 35.3 |
| 2025 | 2TM | 17 | 2 | 55 | 32 | 291 | 9.1 | 1 | 17.1 |
| 2025 | TEN | 7 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 2025 | LVR | 10 | 1 | 34 | 22 | 221 | 10 | 1 | 22.1 |
| Career | 195 | 138 | 1048 | 725 | 9,176 | 12.7 | 63 | 47.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 9 | 18 | 246 | 3 | 13.7 | 27.3 |
| 2012 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 13 | 44 | 687 | 4 | 15.6 | 52.8 |
| 2013 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 12 | 81 | 1,262 | 11 | 15.6 | 105.2 |
| 2014 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 13 | 106 | 1,515 | 11 | 14.3 | 116.5 |
| Career | 47 | 249 | 3,710 | 29 | 14.9 | 78.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
98%
ML model output
Context Prob
63%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 20% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.247
Physical production synergy+0.421
36.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.322
Top Negative Factors
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.303
Improvement accelerating (+5.2) — getting better faster each year-0.274
National recruit rank: #733 — unranked nationally-0.119