Player breakdown
Courtney Roby
Indiana · 2005 Draft Class
6-0189 lbs3rd round, 68th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | TEN | 13 | 6 | 43 | 21 | 289 | 13.8 | 1 | 22.2 |
| 2006 | TEN | 12 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 2009 | NOR | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.4 |
| 2012 | NOR | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 2014 | ATL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Career | 57 | 6 | 55 | 26 | 343 | 13.2 | 1 | 6.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Indiana | Big Ten | 11 | 11 | 171 | 1 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| 2002 | Indiana | Big Ten | 12 | 59 | 1,039 | 4 | 17.6 | 86.6 |
| 2003 | Indiana | Big Ten | 11 | 45 | 504 | 0 | 11.2 | 45.8 |
| 2004 | Indiana | Big Ten | 11 | 55 | 810 | 7 | 14.7 | 73.6 |
| Career | 45 | 170 | 2,524 | 12 | 14.8 | 56.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
56%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.338
BMI 25.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (189 lbs)+0.240
Efficiency consistency: 1.05 — highly consistent across seasons+0.144
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.431
+1.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.570
0.27 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.384