Player breakdown
Craig Davis
LSU · 2007 Draft Class
6-2185 lbs1st round, 30th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~40
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
73%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | SDG | 13 | 1 | 34 | 20 | 188 | 9.4 | 1 | 14.5 |
| 2008 | SDG | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 59 | 14.8 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 2009 | SDG | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 | 52 |
| 2010 | SDG | 7 | 1 | 39 | 21 | 259 | 12.3 | 1 | 37 |
| Career | 25 | 2 | 87 | 51 | 558 | 10.9 | 2 | 22.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | LSU | SEC | 7 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2004 | LSU | SEC | 12 | 43 | 659 | 1 | 15.3 | 54.9 |
| 2005 | LSU | SEC | 11 | 35 | 559 | 2 | 16 | 50.8 |
| 2006 | LSU | SEC | 12 | 56 | 836 | 4 | 14.9 | 69.7 |
| Career | 42 | 141 | 2,117 | 7 | 15.0 | 50.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
21%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
7
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 31% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.208
Recruit dominator synergy+0.361
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.90 — elite recruit at elite school+0.210
Top Negative Factors
-1.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.726
Improvement accelerating (+12.3) — getting better faster each year-0.541
0.17 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.475