Player breakdown
Matt Jones
Arkansas · 2005 Draft Class
6-3230 lbs1st round, 21st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
13%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | JAX | 16 | 1 | 69 | 36 | 432 | 12 | 5 | 27 |
| 2006 | JAX | 14 | 4 | 76 | 41 | 643 | 15.7 | 4 | 45.9 |
| 2007 | JAX | 12 | 0 | 50 | 24 | 317 | 13.2 | 4 | 26.4 |
| 2008 | JAX | 12 | 10 | 107 | 65 | 761 | 11.7 | 2 | 63.4 |
| Career | 54 | 15 | 302 | 166 | 2,153 | 13.0 | 15 | 39.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Arkansas | SEC | 8 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 10.5 | 2.6 |
| 2002 | Arkansas | SEC | 14 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 25 | 1.8 |
| 2003 | Arkansas | SEC | 13 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0.9 |
| 2012 | Florida | SEC | 12 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| 2013 | Florida | SEC | 5 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 2014 | Florida | SEC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| 2023 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | Ole Miss | SEC | 7 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| 2025 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 13 | 12 | 86 | 0 | 7.2 | 6.6 |
| Career | 95 | 39 | 256 | 1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
9%
ML model output
Context Prob
38%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.512
Recruit dominator synergy+0.482
2.6 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.281
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.575
0.00 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.354