Player breakdown
Curtis Samuel
Ohio St. · 2017 Draft Class
5-11196 lbs2nd round, 40th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~30
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
41%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | CAR | 9 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 115 | 7.7 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2018 | CAR | 13 | 8 | 65 | 39 | 494 | 12.7 | 5 | 38 |
| 2019 | CAR | 16 | 15 | 105 | 54 | 627 | 11.6 | 6 | 39.2 |
| 2020 | CAR | 15 | 5 | 97 | 77 | 851 | 11.1 | 3 | 56.7 |
| 2021 | WAS | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 2022 | WAS | 17 | 12 | 92 | 64 | 656 | 10.3 | 4 | 38.6 |
| 2023 | WAS | 16 | 13 | 91 | 62 | 613 | 9.9 | 4 | 38.3 |
| 2024 | BUF | 14 | 2 | 46 | 31 | 253 | 8.2 | 1 | 18.1 |
| 2025 | BUF | 6 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 81 | 11.6 | 1 | 13.5 |
| Career | 111 | 60 | 540 | 355 | 3,717 | 10.5 | 24 | 33.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 15 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 8.6 | 6.3 |
| 2015 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 22 | 289 | 2 | 13.1 | 22.2 |
| 2016 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 74 | 865 | 7 | 11.7 | 66.5 |
| Career | 41 | 107 | 1,249 | 9 | 11.7 | 30.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
32%
ML model output
Context Prob
58%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.276
6.3 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.291
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.97 — elite recruit at elite school+0.219
Top Negative Factors
-23.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.737
0.22 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.470
Improvement accelerating (+8.1) — getting better faster each year-0.368