Player breakdown
Danny Gray
SMU · 2022 Draft Class
6-0186 lbs3rd round, 105th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
38%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | SFO | 13 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | SMU | American | 8 | 33 | 448 | 4 | 13.6 | 56 |
| 2021 | SMU | American | 10 | 49 | 803 | 9 | 16.4 | 80.3 |
| Career | 18 | 82 | 1,251 | 13 | 15.3 | 69.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
37%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 18% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.335
Recruit dominator synergy+0.400
0.72 TDs/game — dominant red-zone role in college+0.234
Top Negative Factors
Accounted for 1.72 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.407
Physical production synergy-0.330
Efficiency composite: 0.66 — average combined efficiency-0.211