Player breakdown
Darius Watts
Marshall · 2004 Draft Class
6-1188 lbs2nd round, 54th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~44
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
69%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | DEN | 16 | 2 | 53 | 31 | 385 | 12.4 | 1 | 24.1 |
| 2005 | DEN | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 3.7 |
| Career | 22 | 2 | 57 | 33 | 407 | 12.3 | 1 | 18.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Marshall | MAC | 11 | 36 | 616 | 6 | 17.1 | 56 |
| 2001 | Marshall | MAC | 12 | 91 | 1,417 | 18 | 15.6 | 118.1 |
| 2002 | Marshall | MAC | 12 | 71 | 1,030 | 12 | 14.5 | 85.8 |
| 2003 | Marshall | MAC | 12 | 74 | 968 | 11 | 13.1 | 80.7 |
| Career | 47 | 272 | 4,031 | 47 | 14.8 | 85.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
73%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.501
39.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.321
+31.4 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.361
Improvement accelerating (+1.3) — getting better faster each year-0.293
Efficiency consistency: 1.15 — highly consistent across seasons-0.230