Predicting the Pros
Predictions/David Anderson
David Anderson

Player breakdown

David Anderson

Colorado St. · 2006 Draft Class

5-10192 lbs7th round, 251st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

69%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2006HOU9011272703
2007HOU80171213110.9116.4
2008HOU161291924112.7215.1
2010HOU121181111710.609.8
20112TM601677911.3113.2
2011HOU20219904.5
2011WAS401467011.7117.5
Career572975767411.8511.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2002Colorado StateMWC108180122.518
2003Colorado StateMWC13721,29391899.5
2004Colorado StateMWC1157940216.585.5
2005Colorado StateMWC12861,221814.2101.8
Career462233,6342016.379.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

54%

ML model output

Context Prob

88%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

4

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 17% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.163
Recruit dominator synergy+0.516
Accounted for 3.62 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.210

Top Negative Factors

Physical production synergy-0.563
Improvement accelerating (+6.2) — getting better faster each year-0.516
Efficiency consistency: 1.38 — highly consistent across seasons-0.289

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)