Player breakdown
David Bell
Purdue · 2022 Draft Class
6-1212 lbs3rd round, 99th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~25
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | CLE | 16 | 3 | 35 | 24 | 214 | 8.9 | 0 | 13.4 |
| 2023 | CLE | 15 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 167 | 11.9 | 3 | 11.1 |
| 2024 | CLE | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 27 |
| Career | 32 | 6 | 61 | 41 | 408 | 10.0 | 3 | 12.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Purdue | Big Ten | 12 | 86 | 1,035 | 7 | 12 | 86.3 |
| 2020 | Purdue | Big Ten | 6 | 53 | 625 | 8 | 11.8 | 104.2 |
| 2021 | Purdue | Big Ten | 11 | 93 | 1,286 | 6 | 13.8 | 116.9 |
| Career | 29 | 232 | 2,946 | 21 | 12.7 | 101.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
36%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.407
+45.6 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.258
BMI 28.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (212 lbs)+0.219
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.279
0.09 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.210
Recruit dominator synergy-0.203